With Andy Burnham widely expected to become the next Prime Minister, questions are mounting over whether he will take a more interventionist approach to sports broadcasting rights.
Sir Keir Starmer last month aligned himself with the Football Supporters Association in calling on TNT Sports to broadcast the Champions League final free-to-air, as had been the case in previous years.
Many observers noted that the government already holds the power, through the listed events regime, to compel broadcasters to do exactly that, raising the question of why Starmer chose not to act.
The listed events regime cannot be applied retrospectively to undo existing contract rights, meaning any change made today would only affect future rights negotiations and packages.
A former Conservative DCMS minister warned that reopening the regime could quickly become “a recipe for aggravation” for any government willing to go down that path.
If the Champions League final were added to the free-to-air list, the logical pressure to also reclassify the Six Nations, Test cricket, Formula 1, and The Open would become difficult to resist politically.
Such an expansion might appear popular with fans and voters but would in practice threaten the economic model underpinning each of those major sporting events.
The listed events regime has been deliberately left largely untouched since its creation in the 1990s, with the only notable update being the reclassification of the Paralympics in 2020.
The Paralympics decision was considered straightforward given the event was already broadcast on Channel 4 and was not a realistic target for pay television operators.
Starmer’s letter to TNT Sports therefore represented the lowest-risk political option available, placing him publicly on the side of fans and cost-of-living concerns without directly intervening in the sports rights market.
It also aligned Starmer with the centre of gravity among Labour’s backbench MPs at a time when his political future remained heavily dependent on their continued support.
Burnham is no stranger to this particular debate, having ordered a review of the listed events regime as Culture Secretary back in 2008, following controversy over England football away friendlies moving behind the Setanta paywall.
That review, commissioned against a backdrop of ongoing sensitivity around Test cricket moving to Sky, ultimately recommended extending the live rights list and making home Ashes Tests available free-to-air.
Burnham had moved to the Department of Health by the time the Davies review reported in 2009, and the incoming coalition government quietly dropped its recommendations entirely in 2010.
The dynamics of managing a restless Labour parliamentary party could push Burnham further toward public control rhetoric if he enters Downing Street, according to analysis by Flint Global director Alan Sendorek.
Significant changes in viewing habits over the past 15 years provide a credible rationale for any incoming Prime Minister who sought to commission a fresh review of the policy.
International precedents do exist, including in Italy, where Champions League finals involving Italian clubs are already made available free-to-air to domestic audiences.
Italy has also recently updated its listed events framework to include important tennis matches involving Italian players, a move widely attributed to what observers have called the “Jannik Sinner effect.”
In the United States, President Trump has publicly criticised the latest NFL media deal and has left open the possibility of government intervention to reduce costs for ordinary fans.
Sports organisations, media companies, and investors will be watching closely to see how much longer the current equilibrium can hold in what Sendorek describes as a “populist anti-business era.”