Baker Botts managing partner Danny David says artificial intelligence will boost associate careers at his firm while posing serious risks to larger, volume-driven competitors.
David argues that firms built on associate headcount are more vulnerable to AI disruption than practices focused on specialised, high-judgment legal work.
“When AI reduces the hours a matter requires, a profit model built on associate volume is more exposed. Our profitability comes from specialized expertise where clients are paying for judgment on hard problems, not for hours on routine tasks,” David said.
He was direct in predicting that some rivals will face painful consequences as AI becomes more deeply embedded in legal practice across the industry.
“For some firms, AI may well result in pink slips falling from the ceiling,” said David. “That will not be our experience.”
Baker Botts hired 84 entry-level associates for this summer and fall, a 2% drop from 86 in the same period a year earlier, suggesting demand at the firm has remained broadly stable.
That compares to a sharper industry-wide decline, with the 100 largest law firms by revenue hiring 4,613 entry-level associates last year, down 22% from 5,917 in 2024, according to industry researcher Firm Prospects.
The same data showed a growing preference for lateral associates, whose prior experience is seen as increasingly valuable as firms navigate the shift toward AI-assisted practice.
David said AI has “already enhanced the career prospects of associates,” noting that younger lawyers who grew up with fast-developing technology are often the most fluent in deploying these tools.
He went further, describing the technology’s potential in sweeping terms: “AI is the single best development for the careers of the next generation that has ever visited the Earth,” he said.
David framed Baker Botts as a deliberate alternative to scale-driven rivals such as Kirkland & Ellis, which has 4,350 attorneys compared to Baker Botts’ 640 and has committed $500 million to a proprietary AI platform.
Baker Botts, ranked 75th in the US by revenue according to American Lawyer, has the resources of a large firm but is “the perfect size to still be agile and scale what works quickly,” David said.
Firms are expected to increasingly prioritise graduates and lateral hires with AI fluency, coding experience, or data mining backgrounds, with that shift potentially taking hold within months.
Moves such as Kirkland’s partnership with Palantir Technologies are already registering with job candidates, who are actively asking about firms’ AI strategies during recruitment.
Seth Chandler, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center who studies AI’s use in legal practice, cautioned that outcomes will vary significantly depending on the type of work a firm handles.
Chandler said firms handling routine matters may need to “cut attorneys or figure out ways to use AI to add value to a greater number of clients,” or risk struggling to stay competitive.
Firms doing bespoke litigation or transactional work will see “efficiencies too,” he said, but will spend years sorting out “how those efficiencies either replace or complement human skills.”