Bitcoin steadied near $111,000 on Thursday as Wall Street digested mixed U.S. jobless claims without derailing the risk-asset rebound.
The muted reaction allowed bulls to sharpen their focus on a prospective push toward $112,000, leaving volatility measures at multi-month lows.
Job data fails to spook markets
Initial jobless claims registered 227,000, undershooting forecasts, while continuing claims disappointed by rising to 1.82 million.
Blacknox, co-founder of Material Indicators, summarized the split data, stating, “BTC is in price discovery, and the market wants to celebrate the good news and ignore the bad news.”
Partner Keith Alan described the figures as “a bit more fuel for BTC momentum,” underscoring the market’s preference for any narrative that preserves bullish tailwinds.
Bond market clouds
Away from crypto, U.S. 30-year yields surged to 5.15 percent, their highest since 2023, prompting The Kobeissi Letter to urge investors to “Keep watching Bitcoin and Gold.”
The newsletter predicted potential intervention “as the Fed refuses to cut,” spotlighting policy uncertainty that could ricochet through digital-asset valuations.
Quiet at all-time highs
Despite record prices, intraday ranges tightened to just 1 percent, a pattern trader Daan Crypto Trades called unprecedented.
“Can’t recall a time in history where $BTC just casually traded around in a 1% range at all time highs,” he said.
“Bigger move following once it breaks this local tiny range,” he added, noting aggressive order-book positioning on both sides.
On-chain signals
Glassnode data showed profit-taking volumes under $1 billion, less than half the amount witnessed the first time Bitcoin crossed $100,000 in December.
“Despite a higher price, profit realization was far more muted,” the analytics firm observed, suggesting conviction among long-term holders remains intact.
Order-book snapshots from CoinGlass revealed thickening bids around $109,000 and layered asks above $112,000, setting the stage for a breakout or shakeout.
Outlook
Momentum traders see any decisive close above $112,000 as an invitation for trend-following algorithms to chase toward the $120,000 psychological barrier.
Bears, however, continue to monitor macro data, particularly inflation surprises that could shift bond yields still higher and tighten financial conditions.
For the moment, Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of softening labor data and heightened Treasury volatility keeps the upward channel intact.
The next catalyst may emerge from Friday’s durable-goods report, but traders warn that even a surprise spike in yields may not pierce current market complacency.
Until then, sideways grind at record levels remains the path of least resistance, reinforcing the view that patience, not haste, is dictating near-term price action.
Should a larger move materialize, liquidity maps suggest stops clustered just beneath $108,000 and above $113,500 could accelerate directionality.
With sentiment skewed bullish yet increasingly complacent, analysts caution that breakouts in either direction are likely to be swift.
As Bitcoin pauses at the doorstep of $112,000, the interplay between macro uncertainty and on-chain conviction continues to write the script.