Bitcoin has been steadily climbing, with its price recently reaching $109,130, just below its previous record high.
But according to some analysts, the clock might be ticking for BTC to stage one more explosive rally in its current four-year cycle.
Popular TradingView analyst TradingShot highlighted the possibility that Bitcoin may not experience another parabolic breakout if the current pattern holds.
He explained that BTC is still moving within a long-term “Channel Up” structure and has yet to replicate the exponential moves seen in prior cycles.
BTC Caught in Long-Term Uptrend Channel
Since bottoming out in November 2022, Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending channel that closely mirrors a Fibonacci-based trendline dating back to 2013.
TradingShot noted that, historically, Bitcoin has initiated powerful rallies every time it broke above the “Buy Zone” in this structure.
“In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, these breakouts triggered parabolic rallies,” he wrote.
However, Bitcoin has not delivered a similar move during this cycle, prompting concern that the opportunity for such an advance may be running out.
“So far, we haven’t had such a rally during the current Cycle, and with time running out… do you think we will get one this time around?” he asked.
October Peak Possible as Historical Patterns Repeat
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital echoed a similar sentiment, pointing out that if history repeats, the current bull market may only have a few more months of upward momentum.
He projects that the market peak could occur around October 2025, roughly 550 days after the most recent halving event in April.
“That’s already two to three months potentially that we have left in this bull market,” he added.
Meanwhile, on-chain indicators suggest a growing foundation for price stability around $100,000.
Cointelegraph recently reported that the outflow/inflow ratio implies that this psychological level could become Bitcoin’s new baseline before another major upward push begins.
Traders Remain Optimistic Despite Resistance
Although Bitcoin has struggled to breach the $110,000 level, several traders remain confident that further gains are possible.
TradingShot pointed out that BTC has turned the top of a former bull flag into a new support zone.
“This is a strong bullish signal along with the price holding above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA),” which is currently around $106,750.
He suggested that if this momentum holds, the breakout could eventually push BTC toward the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168,500.
Fellow trader Jelle agreed, stating, “Bitcoin broke the bullish flag, retested it, and now pushes higher.”
He added that clearing $110,000 would likely set up a path to $130,000.
Another analyst, Mags, emphasized that Bitcoin remains structurally strong, trading well above the 50-week moving average and maintaining support above its previous all-time high.
“It looks like we’re just consolidating before the next leg up,” Mags said.
Fundamentals Suggest Rally May Still Be Intact
In addition to technical analysis, various on-chain signals continue to support a bullish outlook.
These include low BTC balances on exchanges, rising institutional interest through spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favorable metrics such as the MVRV ratio and strong long-term holder activity.
While time may be limited for another explosive rally in this cycle, the combination of solid technical foundations and persistent market demand suggests that Bitcoin may still have one more surge left before the cycle concludes.