Bitcoin’s price fell after failing to maintain $89,200, raising concerns over the $14 billion BTC options expiry on Friday.
Aggregate BTC call options open interest stands at 104,300 BTC, or $9.12 billion, with 84% of positions placed above $91,000.
Put options open interest totals 67,877 BTC, or $5.92 billion, with 31% positioned at $84,500 or lower, suggesting better alignment with current market conditions.
The 23% decline in BTC over 30 days caught bulls off guard, as many call positions may expire worthless if BTC remains near current levels.
Economic Indicators Impact BTC Sentiment
Weak economic data has added pressure on Bitcoin’s momentum.
ADP reported that US private companies shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week during the past four weeks, signaling labor market softness.
Consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October, highlighting ongoing uncertainty among households.
Despite this, weaker economic indicators increase expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less restrictive monetary policy, potentially benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
Gold rose 1.2% and the Russell 2000 index gained 1.9% in anticipation of potential liquidity measures from the US Treasury.
President Donald Trump signed the “Genesis Mission” executive order to accelerate AI development and reduce risks related to energy shortages and long-term financing.
Key Levels and Probable Outcomes for Options Expiry
Traders increased call option positions in the $100,000 to $112,000 range, signaling that medium-term optimism remains despite recent weakness.
The $89,000 price level remains critical for BTC momentum, with five possible scenarios for the options expiry:
- $85,000–$87,000: Net result favors put instruments by $1.9 billion.
- $87,001–$88,000: Net result favors puts by $800 million.
- $88,001–$89,000: Balanced outcome between calls and puts.
- $89,001–$90,000: Net result favors calls by $600 million.
- $90,001–$92,000: Net result favors calls by $3.8 billion.
Investors’ sentiment remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and potential stimulus measures from central banks.