Bitcoin continued to trade with – in a tight range between $117,000 and $120,000 on Tuesday, with signs pointing toward a daily close below $118,000.
Analysts are increasingly eyeing support levels between $110,000 and $114,000, warning that a pullback may be imminent unless major developments change sentiment.
Market participants are focused on two major events that could shift Bitcoin’s direction: the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and a White House report expected to detail the government’s crypto policy and strategic Bitcoin holdings.
Trump May Push for Strategic BTC Reserve
There’s widespread speculation that the report will disclose the exact number of Bitcoin the US government currently owns.
Hopes are also high that former President Trump, who is widely viewed as pro-Bitcoin, could formally endorse the creation of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Such a move would likely trigger renewed buying momentum and ease recent downside pressure.
Busy Economic Calendar and Earnings Set the Tone
In addition to crypto-specific catalysts, broader market events are also in focus.
Earnings reports from major firms like Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, and Ford are due on Wednesday.
Traders are also watching a slew of economic data releases, including US GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls, the ISM services and manufacturing reports, consumer sentiment, and PMI data.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak following the Fed’s interest rate decision.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98% probability the Fed will hold rates steady in the 4.25%–4.5% range, despite pressure from President Trump to initiate cuts.
Risk-Off Mood Sees Bitcoin Liquidations Rise
Ahead of these events, traders have reduced risk across the board.
Bitcoin’s open interest dropped to $49.58 billion from $50.58 billion earlier in the day, according to TRDR.
Data from Coinglass indicates that $173.8 million in long positions were liquidated over the past 12 hours, fueling further selling.
Volatility Squeezes Could Signal Breakout
In the past three weeks, Bitcoin’s intraday volatility has dropped by nearly 45%, with the daily price range narrowing to $2,300 from $4,200 earlier in July.
This pattern of consolidation, often a precursor to larger moves, is supported by the tightening Bollinger Bands.
Analysts believe that a bullish combination of dovish Fed minutes and a pro-Bitcoin announcement from the White House could provide the spark for a breakout.