China stated on Wednesday that it will work with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect, as Donald Trump appeared close to a presidential victory.
Despite this stance, analysts believe Beijing is preparing for heightened competition with the U.S. over trade, technology, and security.
“Our policy towards the U.S. is consistent,” said foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning in response to a question on how Trump’s return could impact relations.
“We will continue to view and handle China-U.S. relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence, and win-win cooperation,” she added.
However, Chinese strategists anticipate more intense rhetoric and possibly increased tariffs under Trump, while some see his isolationist approach as an opening for China to expand its influence.
“Beijing anticipated a close race in the U.S. election,” noted Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Although Trump’s victory is not China’s preferred outcome and raises concerns, it is not entirely unexpected. The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain a cordial personal relationship with Trump while strengthening China’s global presence.”
Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, remarked that Trump’s win “may pose a relatively large challenge to Sino-U.S. relations,” citing his past policies and campaign promises.
Trump has proposed tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese imports and aims to end China’s most-favored-nation trading status.
This potential trade war is unsettling for China, which exports over $400 billion annually to the U.S.
“China is particularly wary of a possible trade war revival under Trump, especially given its internal economic challenges,” Zhao explained.
In response, China is likely to increase its push for technological and economic self-sufficiency while strengthening ties with countries like Russia.
“Going forward, Beijing may be identifying trade-offs it could propose to Washington, hoping to focus on its domestic economic needs,” said Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.
If Trump wins, China could also strengthen relations with the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia, capitalizing on possible U.S. disengagement from global agreements.
“China expects Trump to further disengage internationally, creating power vacuums for it to fill,” Zhao added.
Trump’s comments about Taiwan, including that it should pay for U.S. defense and has taken American semiconductor business, have also raised concerns.