The Conservative Party, led by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is facing the prospect of a significant loss in the upcoming national election, with a new seat projection indicating a dominant victory for the Labour Party.
According to the YouGov model, the Conservatives are expected to secure only 155 seats, while Labour is projected to win 403 out of the 650 available seats in the Parliament.
This forecast underscores the challenges the Conservative Party faces as it lags behind Labour, which has maintained a double-digit lead in polls.
Rishi Sunak, who anticipates calling the election in the latter half of the year, finds his party grappling with declining popularity, a trend that has persisted despite recent efforts, including a tax-cutting budget.
The YouGov model’s predictions suggest a worsening position for the Conservatives, predicting them to fare even poorer than in the 1997 election, where they won 165 seats.
On the flip side, Labour’s expected seat count, while substantial, does not surpass the 418 seats won under Tony Blair’s leadership in 1997, with a forecasted majority smaller than Blair’s 179-seat victory.
Notable Conservative figures at risk of losing their seats include Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt, a former leadership contender.
The YouGov survey, conducted from March 7-27 with 18,761 respondents, utilizes a larger sample size than typical opinion polls, bolstering its credibility by accurately forecasting outcomes of the previous two elections.
Despite Labour’s commanding lead in the model, with 41% of the vote compared to the Conservative’s 24%, YouGov advises caution, noting that the final election results might differ due to its methodology, particularly in how it accounts for undecided voters.
This projection adds to the narrative of a Conservative Party struggling to reconnect with voters after years of political instability marked by Britain’s exit from the European Union and the contentious handling of the COVID-19 crisis.
The party’s long tenure in government since 2010, accompanied by a revolving door of prime ministers, appears to be culminating in a moment of reckoning, with the forthcoming election poised to potentially reshape Britain’s political landscape.