Britain’s Labour Party is projected to secure a resounding victory in the anticipated national election next year, as per an opinion poll released on Saturday.
This poll suggests a 20-point lead for Labour over the ruling Conservatives led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Despite this significant lead, some analysts believe it to be potentially volatile.
This extensive poll, executed for 38 Degrees and showcased by the Observer newspaper, was based on responses from over 11,000 participants from Sept. 11-25.
The survey applied a model to predict results for each constituency. Its primary forecast suggests a potential win of 420 seats for Labour, 149 for the Conservatives, and 23 for the Liberal Democrats.
If this projection holds, Labour would enjoy a dominant 190-seat majority in the House of Commons. It’s noteworthy that Labour has been in the opposition since 2010.
For context, in the 2019 national election, the Conservatives secured 365 seats while Labour won 203.
The methodology used for this prediction, multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), has a track record of successfully forecasting the 2017 UK election outcome.
A striking revelation from the projected results indicates that 12 of Sunak’s key cabinet members, including the deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, and defence secretary, Grant Shapps, are at risk of losing their parliamentary seats.
Furthermore, data from the poll, collated before the annual conference of the Conservatives, highlighted that the foremost concerns for voters across all constituencies were the rising cost of living and the state of the National Health Service.