Playoff Watch: Who’s Rising in the AP Preseason Top 25

Labor Day weekend offers a trial by fire for several top-ranked programs. No. 1 Texas travels to Columbus to face defending national champion Ohio State.

For the first time in program history, Texas opens the season ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press preseason poll, edging Penn State by just five points in the closest top-two vote since 1998.

The poll reflects a shifting power balance across conferences, with the SEC placing 10 teams in the Top 25 and the Big Ten securing six. Several blue-chip programs will begin the season with new quarterbacks, while others lean on experienced rosters and continuity.

Early matchups promise to test these rankings quickly, with the opening weekend featuring three top-10 clashes that could have playoff implications. This year’s initial poll is not just a snapshot of preseason expectations; it‘s a launchpad for a season packed with high-stakes games and shifting narratives.

Texas Leads a Close Race for No. 1

Texas claimed the top spot with 25 first-place votes, driven by anticipation surrounding redshirt sophomore Arch Manning’s debut as a starter. The Longhorns’ offense is bolstered by veteran talent, but their No. 1 ranking will be tested immediately when they face No. 3 Ohio State on Aug. 30.

Penn State, just five points behind, returns quarterback Drew Allar alongside star running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Ohio State, ranked third, will start fresh under center.

Clemson and Georgia round out the top five, each blending new quarterback leadership with proven skill position players.

The current situation suggests that a single early loss could dramatically reshape the playoff picture, and betting lines at platforms like FanDuel reflect that volatility.

Conferences Stack the Deck

The SEC’s dominance in the preseason poll is unmistakable: 10 ranked teams, four in the top 10, and several others poised to disrupt. The Big Ten follows with six ranked squads, anchored by Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. The Big 12’s four representatives include top-ranked Texas and rising Kansas State.

The ACC contributes three teams, with Clemson at No. 4 leading the charge. Independent Notre Dame sits at No. 6, while Boise State represents the Mountain West at No. 25.

This distribution underlines the concentration of elite programs in just a few conferences. It also raises the stakes for intra-league matchups; conference titles may now be as critical as playoff committee politics in determining postseason fates.

New Faces in Familiar Places

The preseason poll features programs breaking long-standing ranking droughts. Arizona State is ranked No. 11, its highest preseason position since 1998, while Illinois sits at No. 12, a mark last reached in 1990.

Both teams return starting quarterbacks, Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils and Luke Altmyer for the Fighting Illini, offering stability in leadership. Miami, ranked No. 10, begins a new era under former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, who will be tested in a Week 1 showdown with Notre Dame.

These programs may not yet be perennial playoff contenders, but their presence in the upper half of the rankings signals a broader competitive field, where a few decisive early wins could vault them into the national conversation.

Opening Weekend Tests the Rankings

Labor Day weekend offers a trial by fire for several top-ranked programs. No. 1 Texas travels to Columbus to face defending national champion Ohio State in what could be a preview of the College Football Playoff.

Later that evening, No. 9 LSU visits No. 4 Clemson, a clash of power programs with playoff aspirations. The weekend closes with No. 6 Notre Dame heading to No. 10 Miami, renewing a rivalry dormant since 2017.

These games are more than marquee matchups; they’re measuring sticks for conference strength and program resilience. Early victories will carry an outsized influence in shaping not only rankings, but also public perception of which teams can survive what is shaping up to be a grueling season.

Midseason Showdowns Could Reshape the Race

Several October matchups loom large. Texas visits No. 15 Florida on Oct. 4, a rare trip into The Swamp that will test the Longhorns’ adaptability to SEC road environments.

The same weekend, No. 3 Ohio State meets No. 12 Illinois, a game that could validate or deflate the Illini’s surge.

On Oct. 11, No. 13 South Carolina travels to LSU, hoping to break an eight-game losing streak in the series.

By November, heavyweight clashes intensify, Penn State visits Ohio State on Nov. 1 in a game likely to decide the Big Ten East, while Georgia and Florida meet the same day in Jacksonville with SEC title hopes at stake. Each matchup has the potential to eliminate a contender or launch a dark horse.

The Road to December

The final month of the regular season is loaded with potential playoff elimination games. On Nov. 8, LSU travels to Alabama, a rivalry that often decides the SEC West. Just a week later, Texas faces Georgia in Athens, giving the Bulldogs a chance to avenge recent close calls.

The playoff committee’s emphasis on quality wins means late-season success will be critical for seeding in the new 12-team playoff format. For top-ranked teams, November is not simply about avoiding upsets; it’s about peaking at the right time, securing statement victories, and maintaining health before conference championships.

What This Year’s Poll Means for the Playoff Race

The razor-thin margin between Texas and Penn State atop the preseason poll reflects a season with no clear dominant force. Depth across multiple conferences ensures that the playoff race will remain fluid deep into November.

Early nonconference showdowns could tilt momentum, but the grind of conference schedules will decide who endures.

Programs outside the traditional elite, like Illinois, Arizona State, and Miami, have a chance to disrupt the hierarchy if they capitalize on early opportunities.

For fans, this parity promises a season where every weekend could deliver a result that reshapes the national picture. If history holds, the path from preseason ranking to playoff berth will be anything but linear—and that unpredictability is what will make 2025 unforgettable.

*Content reflects information available as of 2025/08/14; subject to change.