Three British opinion polls released late on Saturday depict a challenging scenario for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak‘s Conservative Party, with one pollster warning of potential “electoral extinction” in the July 4 election.
These polls emerge just over halfway through the election campaign, following a week where both the Conservatives and Labour outlined their manifestos, and right before postal ballots are sent to voters.
Sunak surprised many by calling for an early election on May 22, against expectations of a later date to allow more time for economic recovery after the highest inflation in 40 years.
The market research company Savanta reported 46% support for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, up 2 points from their previous poll five days earlier, while support for the Conservatives fell by 4 points to 21%.
This poll, conducted from June 12 to June 14 for the Sunday Telegraph, indicates Labour’s largest lead since Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss.
Her tax cut plans had previously led investors to sell off British government bonds, increasing interest rates and necessitating a Bank of England intervention.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, commented, “Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.”
Another poll by Survation, published by the Sunday Times, predicts that the Conservatives could secure just 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons, the lowest in their nearly 200-year history, while Labour could win 456 seats.
This poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13. In terms of percentages, the Survation poll places Labour at 40%, the Conservatives at 24%, and former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party at 12%.
A third poll by Opinium for Sunday’s Observer, conducted from June 12 to June 14, also shows Labour at 40%, the Conservatives at 23%, and Reform UK at 14%, indicating that both major parties are losing ground to smaller rivals.