On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced it would leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with the exit taking effect on May 1.
The decision ended 59 years of membership for OPEC’s third-largest producer, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq, marking the single biggest rupture in the cartel’s 66-year history.
Notably, the UAE did not consult Saudi Arabia or any other member before making the announcement, signalling a unilateral break from decades of coordinated oil diplomacy.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through Abu Dhabi, four years before the UAE itself was formally established as a country in 1971, making it one of the organisation’s longest-serving members.
Through its state oil company ADNOC, the UAE grew its production capacity by nearly 40 percent over six years, reaching approximately 4.85 million barrels per day, with a target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
Despite that expansion, backed by a committed $150 billion investment programme through 2030, the UAE was held to an OPEC+ quota of roughly 3 million to 3.4 million barrels per day.
That gap between capacity and permitted output had been a source of friction for years, nearly fracturing the group during a prolonged standoff in 2021 over baseline quota allocations.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei described the exit as “a policy decision” made “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production.”
ADNOC Group CEO Dr. Sultan Al Jaber characterised the move as “sovereign” and consistent with the UAE’s “long-term energy strategy, its true production capability, and its national interest.”
The timing of the announcement cannot be separated from the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran that began on February 28, 2026, and the resulting disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflict included missile and drone strikes affecting UAE territory, and the broader closure of the strait caused the UAE’s actual production to fall from roughly 3.4 million barrels per day to approximately 1.9 million barrels per day in March 2026.
Iran, whose forces closed the strait and disrupted UAE exports during the conflict, is itself a founding OPEC member, complicating continued cooperation within the same framework.
Russia, an increasingly central partner in the OPEC+ framework since 2016, maintained close ties with Iran throughout the conflict, adding another layer of strategic tension for Abu Dhabi.
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis noted that with close to 2 million barrels per day of UAE offshore production currently shut in due to the conflict, any immediate ramp-up in output remains constrained regardless of membership status.
Wood Mackenzie estimates a return to pre-conflict production levels could take up to six months after transit through the strait fully resumes, meaning the UAE’s exit will shape markets more significantly in 2027 and beyond.
If competition between the UAE and OPEC over market share escalates, Wood Mackenzie’s analysis suggests medium-term oil prices could move sharply lower as the UAE pursues an independent production strategy.
The UAE accounted for roughly 14 percent of OPEC’s total production capacity, and its departure reduces the cartel’s coordinated influence over the global oil market in structural terms.
OPEC’s broader OPEC+ coalition still controls roughly 41 percent of global oil supply, but the loss of one of only three members holding meaningful spare capacity reduces the group’s flexibility to respond to future supply shocks.
The Middle East Council on Global Affairs has urged businesses and governments heavily dependent on Gulf oil imports to diversify supply relationships and strengthen strategic reserves in anticipation of greater volatility.
Whether other members eventually follow the UAE’s lead, or whether OPEC adapts its quota system to retain its remaining high-capacity producers, will shape global energy markets for years to come.