Eli Lilly (LLY) Posts $23 Billion Quarter As Oral Obesity Pill Foundayo Falls Short Of Expectations

Pedestrians pass by the headquarters of Blackstone in midtown Manhattan in New York, New York, Friday April 14, 2017.

Eli Lilly’s second-quarter revenues surged to $23 billion, a 48% year-over-year increase that comfortably beat analyst consensus estimates of $20.6 billion.

The result also represented a 16% sequential increase, a sharp acceleration from the modest 3% sequential growth recorded in the first quarter of the year.

The primary engines behind the revenue surge were Lilly’s injectable GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which continue to dominate the fast-growing incretin medicines market.

Among injectable incretins, Lilly’s drugs are now drawing three out of four new patient starts, a striking measure of the company’s grip on the category.

The one softer note in an otherwise exceptional quarter came from Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 agonist that received U.S. regulatory approval in April, which generated $98 million in revenue.

That figure fell slightly below analyst estimates of approximately $103 million, according to FactSet, and Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger described the overall result as having “disappointed.”

However, Risinger noted that Foundayo’s sales in the United Arab Emirates reached $31 million, which he said “bodes well for Foundayo’s global potential.”

Lilly’s president of U.S. operations, Ilya Yuffa, pointed to more encouraging recent trends, describing an “inflection point” in the drug’s growth trajectory during a conference call with analysts.

“We’re seeing week-to-week growth in overall prescriptions and uptake for Foundayo,” Yuffa said. “We’re doubling the volume that we had just a month ago and we’re starting to see new starts coming in nearly around one out of four.”

By contrast, rival Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide pill generated close to $500 million in the same quarter, highlighting the competitive gap Lilly still needs to close in the oral obesity market.

Novo Nordisk’s injectable Wegovy grew just 1% to approximately $3 billion, while its flagship diabetes drug Ozempic rose 3% to $4.85 billion, well behind Lilly’s incretin performance.

Outside the United States, Mounjaro serves as the brand name for tirzepatide in both Type 2 diabetes and obesity indications, which partly explains the revenue distribution between Lilly’s two flagship products.

Recognising its dependence on tirzepatide, Lilly has pursued an aggressive expansion strategy, announcing no fewer than eight acquisitions since the start of the year, collectively valued at upwards of $26 billion.

The most recent of those deals is a $3.8 billion bid for psychedelic medicines developer AtaiBeckley, signalling the breadth of Lilly’s ambitions beyond its current core franchise.

The company also raised its full-year financial guidance, now forecasting revenues of between $85 billion and $87 billion, up from its previous range of $82 billion to $85 billion.