Heavy overnight rain is threatening to drench the Knavesmire at York, with torrential thunderstorms forecast ahead of day two of the Ebor Festival.
The going had already shifted to good, good-to-soft in places before racing got underway on Wednesday, and conditions could deteriorate significantly if the forecasts prove accurate.
The headline contest on the card is the Group One Yorkshire Oaks at 3.35pm, where the Classic generation will face off against their elders in what promises to be a fascinating encounter.
One mare stands out as the horse to beat, and that is Kalpana, who is available at 6/5 with bet365 and will relish any additional rain that falls on the track.
She arrives at York carrying the strongest form in the field, most notably from her recent victory in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.
That King George victory represented the finest performance of her career so far, building on two previous Group One wins and a string of creditable efforts at the highest level.
Her consistency has been a hallmark of her career, with the mare finishing outside the top three just once in 17 career starts, a remarkable record at the elite level.
Defeating the calibre of Calandagan and Benvenuto Cellini in her most recent outing represents top-class form, and she will not need to replicate that standard to take this prize.
Last year’s winner Minnie Hauk can bounce back from a disappointing display last time, with the Aidan O’Brien-trained filly having landed two Classics before this race as a three-year-old and produced a huge run when finishing second in the Arc.
She has not quite built on that promise this season but did run a near career best when finishing behind Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes over a trip that appeared on the sharp side for her.
It could be sensible to set aside her King George performance on the basis it was not run to suit, and if she returns to her best, she represents the most serious threat to Kalpana.
The pair appear the logical selection for a Quinella with World Pool, but it may be worth including pacemaker Sugar Island, who is available at 150/1 with Paddy Power from a prominent racing position.
Should conditions deteriorate further and the ground become genuinely testing, Sugar Island could easily hit the frame and reward each-way backers at a generous price.
With rain in the forecast and conditions likely to play into the hands of the stronger stayers, the Yorkshire Oaks looks set to be one of the most compelling races of this year’s Ebor Festival.