American businesses significantly ramped up orders for Chinese goods in the weeks leading up to the high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The jump in orders was described as a “surprise,” with shipments to the U.S. rising on both a yearly and monthly basis “as China’s relative tariff position improved,” according to China Beige Book.
China Beige Book, a New York-based research firm, surveyed 1,295 Chinese companies between September 1 and 22 to compile its findings.
The gauge measuring U.S. orders jumped to 13 in September, up sharply from negative-12 a year earlier and from just 3 in August, the report showed.
Despite the upswing in U.S.-bound orders, overall Chinese domestic and export orders remained below their levels from a year earlier, and new orders weakened from August.
The two countries agreed to extend by two months to January a trade truce that keeps tariffs lower, suspends restrictive controls on rare earth exports, and holds off higher port fees on ships.
The U.S. also reportedly planned to delay a threatened round of tariffs tied to industrial overcapacity until at least after this week’s summit, easing near-term pressure on Chinese exporters.
The effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods of around 23% remains well above the average levy the U.S. imposes on other major trading partners, according to Barclays.
China’s ports saw their busiest week on record in the run-up to the summit, with official data aligning with the export order figures from the China Beige Book survey.
Following the truce extension, Eurasia Group raised its odds of continued stability in the bilateral relationship to the highest level since Trump returned to office.
“Neither government has an interest in renewed escalation,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, who expects both sides to press each other for near-term commitments to maintain the fragile stability.
Washington is likely to seek further progress on expedited Chinese approval of rare-earth export licenses for U.S. end users, as well as increased purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, Wang said.
In return, Beijing would expect the White House to maintain its current pause on arms sales to Taiwan, according to Wang’s analysis of the summit’s likely outcomes.
The two leaders are expected to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, and potentially on the sidelines of the G20 summit the U.S. is hosting in Miami in December.
No bilateral meeting beyond this week’s Washington summit has yet been confirmed, leaving the future trajectory of U.S.-China relations carefully watched by global markets.