On 30 September 2026, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published a final rule overhauling the Corporate Average Fuel Economy programme for model years 2022 to 2031.
The rule, titled the “Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule III for Model Years 2022 to 2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks,” introduces sweeping changes to how manufacturers plan for compliance.
NHTSA estimates that the final rule will reduce average up-front vehicle costs by approximately $1,290, cutting by more than half what consumers might expect to pay as a result of the 2024 standards.
Among the most significant changes, the rule revises CAFE standards for both passenger and non-passenger automobiles across the full model year range covered by the regulation.
For passenger automobiles, NHTSA set fuel economy standards that increase from the newly finalised MY 2022 standards at a rate of 0.90 percent annually through MY 2029.
The passenger automobile standard then decreases by 0.3 percent for MY 2030 before rising again by one percent for MY 2031, creating a modest dip midway through the compliance window.
For non-passenger automobiles, standards increase from the MY 2022 baseline at a rate of 0.51 percent annually through MY 2029, followed by a 14.4 percent decrease in MY 2030 and a one percent increase in MY 2031.
NHTSA confirmed that the reduced standards for MY 2030 reflect the interaction between the revised fuel economy standards and changes to vehicle classification criteria taking effect from that model year.
In a notable methodological decision, the agency determined that standards should be based on fuel economy improvements achievable through gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, including non-plug-in hybrid vehicles, and did not consider electric vehicle performance in setting the benchmarks.
The rule also modifies the criteria used to classify vehicles as non-passenger automobiles beginning in MY 2030, a change that could affect how manufacturers categorise certain models within their fleets.
Another consequential change is the elimination of inter-manufacturer trading of CAFE credits earned beginning in MY 2028, a move that reshapes a key compliance mechanism many manufacturers have historically depended upon.
The end of credit trading is likely to be significant for manufacturers that have relied on purchasing credits from rivals to meet their obligations, as well as those that have sold surplus credits as a revenue stream.
Legal challenges are widely expected, with opponents likely to argue that NHTSA’s revised standards do not satisfy the Energy Policy and Conservation Act’s requirement that CAFE standards be set at the “maximum feasible” level.
However, because Congress has eliminated penalties for noncompliance, any litigation may have more limited practical consequences in the short term, reducing the immediate leverage available to challengers.