Saudi Arabia is sending more crude through the Strait of Hormuz just as the waterway grows more dangerous, according to new analysis from Kpler.
A drone strike on the kingdom’s East-West pipeline on 10 September has redrawn Saudi export geography for the second time this year. Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day of crude loadings between April and July, but Kpler says its seven-day loading rate has now fallen to 1.6 million barrels per day.
East coast surge
Exports have swung back to the Gulf coast. Kpler reports that loadings at Ras Tanura reached 40 million barrels in September, the highest since the war began. The firm’s base case is that the repaired pipeline will operate at only 50% of pre-attack capacity, leaving 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels per day to be rerouted through Hormuz.
There are early signs of a partial restart at Yanbu. Satellite analysis identified a build of roughly 1 million barrels in crude inventories on 22 September, the first since the attack. However, Kpler says loadings have stayed below market expectations because domestic refineries are being prioritised.
The improved Saudi availability has helped narrow the Dubai M1-M3 spread from roughly $25 a barrel to $15, according to Kpler.
Tankers follow the barrels
Shipowners are responding. Kpler counts 39 vessels calling at Saudi east coast ports so far in September, 18 of them linked to Bahri and most of the rest to Sinokor. At least three of the non-Bahri ships had no prior post-conflict exposure to Mideast Gulf trades. The VLCC Mideast Gulf-to-China rate (TD3C) peaked at $34.61 a barrel before easing to $33.76 as the additional tonnage arrived.
Rising risk
The rerouting comes with greater danger. Kpler recorded three confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in the Mideast Gulf in the week to 23 September. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims it has targeted 19 vessels attempting to transit the strait since 25 September, including seven overnight on 26-27 September.
Diplomacy offers little relief for now. Washington rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait within seven days, and Kpler Insight describes negotiation momentum as a real but low-probability near-term catalyst. Brent settled at $104.59 a barrel on Friday, down roughly $3 on earlier deal optimism, before rebounding on the rejection.
Flows recovering, but unevenly
Confirmed Hormuz clearance averaged 13.2 million barrels per day over seven days, roughly 77% of the 17.1 million barrels per day pre-war baseline, Kpler said. Daily readings remain choppy, ranging from 6.5 million to 12.6 million barrels per day over 24-27 September. Kpler cautions that the most recent figures are preliminary and have typically settled 1.5 to 2 times higher as confirmations land.
Refined products remain the weak spot. Clean product transits are running at just 39% of their 2025 average, with Middle East refinery runs down an estimated 2.3 million barrels per day from February levels and no significant capacity recovery expected until next year.