The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged at 3.75 per cent when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday.
The decision is anticipated to result in a split vote among members of the rate-setting committee, reflecting divisions over the inflation outlook.
Analysts believe that two members, Huw Pill and Megan Greene, could back a hike in interest rates, as they had done on previous occasions.
Other potential dissenters could include Catherine Mann, who said tightened financial markets had influenced her vote in June, and Clare Lombardelli, widely seen as a hawk.
A surge in the Brent crude oil price to just shy of $100 per barrel, driven by the re-emergence of conflict in the Middle East, is also set to influence the Bank’s members.
Inflation slowed to 2.6 per cent in the year to June, offering some relief, but economists warn that pressure is building once again.
A reset in the energy price cap is predicted to push inflation above three per cent in the second half of the year, with price growth potentially reaching as high as 3.5 per cent.
Some City analysts have suggested that should inflation reach four per cent, the Bank could be prompted to change course on its current monetary policy stance.
Rate-setters will also be closely monitoring rising inflation expectations and developments on the jobs market, which has reduced wage bargaining powers from workers due to the lack of vacancies and higher unemployment.
Morgan Stanley economists Bruna Skarica, Fabio Bassanin and David Adams said the minutes from the meeting would be “heavily impacted” by prices in energy markets, with further clarity on inflation scenarios to be offered.
The Wall Street bank is projecting a hold in interest rates for the rest of the year as there were “no signs” of inflation spiralling due to higher wage growth demands, given weaknesses across the jobs market.
Votes could change if oil and gas prices remained higher for several months, feeding into higher energy bills for UK households and businesses.
BNP Paribas made a more cautious prediction on the upcoming MPC split, pencilling in three members voting for a hike rather than the two widely expected by other forecasters.
Economists at BNP Paribas have also said there will be one interest rate hike in September to pre-empt wage bargaining demands from workers in early 2027.