Bitcoin may have paused below its March record, yet fresh analysis from Swissblock Technologies shows no evidence of a bearish reversal.
The private wealth manager’s Bitcoin Fundamental Index, or BFI, measures network health across several indicators.
Despite two sharp pullbacks since February, BFI never dropped into its weakness zone.
Analysts say that stability argues against the idea that a topping pattern is forming.
Swissblock wrote, “A lot of noise about a potential double top as $BTC struggles to break ATH,” but the data remain supportive of a renewed push higher.
Core Metrics Reject Bearish Divergence
Since August 2024, BFI has hovered around the mid-range, implying that on-chain momentum has kept pace with price.
The firm added, “Even during the Feb–Mar pullback, it held neutral, never dipped into weakness,” underscoring strong underlying demand.
Swissblock summed up its stance with a blunt message to skeptics: “On-chain strength is intact,” and “Bears: not this time, got to wait.”
Historical Study Points to New Peaks
Network economist Timothy Peterson broadened the bullish case with a statistical review of past rallies.
“Bitcoin has pulled to within 10 % of its all-time high,” he noted.
“What happens next? This has happened nearly 300 times since 2015. Within 50 days, Bitcoin made a new all-time high 98 % of the time.”
If that pattern repeats, Bitcoin would surpass $115,000 by late June, and could probe $125,000 should momentum match post-2020 averages.
Market Structure Favors the Bulls
Derivatives desks report positive funding rates, signalling traders continue to pay a premium to hold long positions.
Meanwhile, liquidity maps show limited sell orders above $107,000, suggesting little resistance once the level is cleared.
Large holders have resumed accumulation, shrinking the supply available on exchanges and limiting the power of short sellers.
Key Levels and Near-Term Catalysts
Technicians view the $100,000 mark as psychological support that must not fail on a daily closing basis.
Above, a clean break of $107,000 would invalidate double-top concerns and could open the door to rapid price discovery.
Upcoming catalysts include May’s U.S. inflation data and further inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Outlook Through Mid-Year
With macro conditions still benign and network metrics steady, analysts believe the path of least resistance remains higher.
A brief consolidation beneath prior highs is typical of Bitcoin’s historical bull runs, Swissblock argues.
Unless fresh macro shocks emerge, the consensus is that BTC will attempt new peaks before summer ends.