Bitcoin may still be in the early stages of its market cycle top, with substantial gains potentially on the horizon, according to crypto market analyst Sminston With.
In a recent post on X, With shared a detailed analysis using a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) overlaid with a power law model that boasts a high correlation (R²=0.96) to historical price trends.
Power Law Model Indicates Predictable Growth Pattern
Unlike traditional stock models that assume exponential growth, With’s power law analysis suggests Bitcoin follows a more predictable, structured path over time.
His chart shows that in each historical bull market, Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA has peaked two to three times above the power law baseline.
As of May 27, Bitcoin was priced at $110,000.
If this cycle repeats historical behavior, the next peak could range between $220,000 and $330,000.
Price Deviations Highlight Volatility
Another chart presented by With focuses on how far current prices deviate from the power law trendline.
It demonstrates that Bitcoin continues to experience strong cyclical volatility.
This contradicts the view that Bitcoin’s bull cycles are flattening over time.
Instead, the cryptocurrency’s unpredictable price swings remain a core feature of the asset, raising expectations of major movement in the months ahead.
Proven Track Record of Forecasting
In 2024, With correctly projected that Bitcoin would hit six figures by January 2025, a prediction made when the cryptocurrency was trading around $60,000.
His approach relies on identifying “decaying peaks” — moments in market cycles when asset returns diminish as adoption rises, eventually culminating in a major sell-off.
His quarter-by-quarter BTC price targets for 2025 reflect this cyclical behavior, although he notes the dataset is limited to four cycles.
“Considerable skepticism is warranted,” he cautioned.
Long-Term Holders Move Billions in BTC
While With’s bullish forecast draws attention, another trend could be influencing short-term price movements.
According to data from Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have recently moved approximately $4.02 billion worth of BTC.
This marks the largest transfer volume by the 1-to-5-year cohort since February 2025.
Cohort Behavior Signals Profit-Taking
A breakdown of this movement reveals $2.16 billion came from the 3-to-5-year holders.
Another $1.41 billion came from the 2-to-3-year group, while $450 million was transferred by those holding for 1-to-2 years.
Historically, these movements coincide with price peaks, suggesting strategic profit-taking is underway.
Bitcoin is currently struggling to maintain its position above the $110,000 level.
Technical Indicators Show Resilience
Despite some selling pressure, Bitcoin continues to form higher highs and higher lows since its bottom at $74,500.
After reaching new peaks, the asset has tended to consolidate before breaking out again.
A continuation of this pattern may suggest further upside potential, especially if combined with decreasing exchange reserves — a sign that holders are reluctant to sell.
Outlook for the Coming Months
While optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s price potential grows, volatility and cyclical patterns remain central themes.
With’s model offers a long-term bullish roadmap, projecting a top between $220,000 and $330,000, while the behavior of long-term holders hints at near-term fluctuations.
For investors, understanding both the structural model and the real-time market activity could prove essential in navigating the next stage of the bull market.