Ryan Lance, chief executive of ConocoPhillips, told delegates at the Qatar Economic Forum that U.S. shale production will flatten later this decade unless crude stays around $65–$75 per barrel.
“The breakeven probably hasn’t moved a lot. I think long-term, if you’re going to say oil prices in a comfortable range – maybe in the 70s, or 65-75, we’ll still see continued modest growth out of the U.S.,” he said.
Production at Risk if Prices Slide into the $50s
Lance added that output would decline should oil fall into the low-$50 range because margins would compress too far to justify new drilling.
“But we see plateauing production, probably the end of this decade, coming out of the U.S., unless there’s going to be another technological breakthrough in our business. And don’t bet against our industry.”
Energy Security Concerns Shared by Qatar
Speaking on the same panel, Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that sustained sub-$60 prices would choke investment and leave future power needs unmet.
“If oil fell below $60 a barrel, there would be a decline in investment and global power requirements would not be met,” he said.
LNG Oversupply Fears Played Down
Al-Kaabi dismissed talk of a liquefied natural gas glut, asserting that Asian demand and coal-to-gas switching will absorb additional volumes.
He said Qatar is “not worried at all” about oversupply as it expands production capacity.
Technology and Capital Discipline in Focus
Industry executives believe breakthroughs in drilling efficiency or enhanced-recovery techniques could extend shale growth, but warn that capital discipline remains tight.
Most publicly traded producers prioritise shareholder returns, limiting aggressive output targets even when prices rise.
Outlook Through 2030
If prices average in the low-$70s, analysts expect U.S. shale to grow modestly before plateauing around 2030.
Lower prices could trigger a faster decline, forcing importers to rely more on OPEC and emerging suppliers.