A new report backed by the Conservative Party claims households could save around £540 a year after 2030 if net zero regulations are abandoned in favour of cheaper energy.
The figure comes from a study published by centre-right think tank Onward, which estimates that a full net zero commitment by 2050 costs the UK approximately £320bn between 2030 and 2050.
That £320bn total is spread across two decades and roughly 29 million households, making the headline saving a divided average rather than a direct forecast for any individual bill.
Onward’s own modelling of actual bills puts the likely reduction closer to £200 a year by 2035 for a household with average consumption levels.
That saving could rise to £290 if additional measures are adopted, including moving the Warm Home Discount and other energy costs into general taxation and cutting debt-related charges.
The study, titled Firm Foundations, used modelling by consultancy Transira Energy and compares the current policy trajectory against an alternative pathway built around energy demand and supply.
Most projected savings between 2030 and 2050 stem from network spending reforms that would place supply sources closer to power lines, alongside the removal of carbon taxes.
Onward researchers said the proposed changes would still leave the overall energy system 80 per cent clean by 2050, despite moving away from strict net zero targets.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said a “serious plan to deal with climate change” must focus on results and “not simply setting targets and congratulating ourselves afterwards.”
Badenoch added: “This report shows what a common sense approach looks like. Unlike Labour, who are wedded to the old failing plans; or Reform, who still don’t believe climate change is happening, the Conservatives will protect our environment, protect our energy security and make energy cheaper.”
Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho is set to deliver a press conference detailing the cost of renewables, telling attendees the Onward report is “the single most detailed costing of the electricity system that has been produced in British politics.”
Coutinho will also say: “The findings are remarkable… It’s the work that should have been done by the government but has not been because they are more driven by ideology than evidence.”
The report does acknowledge significant trade-offs, noting that 524 million tonnes of cumulative carbon emissions would be produced under the alternative policy pathway.
That carbon output implies a removal cost of more than £600 per tonne for the last portion of unabated gas, more than twice the highest carbon price the energy department currently models for 2050.
The report also concedes greater exposure to gas price volatility, estimating that a 250 per cent spike in gas prices in 2040 could add £6bn to fuel costs for the country.
Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh rejected the Conservative plan, warning it would “tie Britain to the fossil fuel rollercoaster and keep bills higher for families.”
Fahnbulleh said: “Labour is investing in more clean energy jobs, cutting tax on electricity bills to give families breathing space this winter and we’re taking action to tackle the climate crisis and bring down bills for good. Kemi Badenoch would put jobs at risk and increase bills.”