Foreign Speculators Boost Odds of Trump Beating Harris

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously rejected proposals to allow such betting, citing concerns about its role.

Four accounts on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket have placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, leading to speculation about the source of these wagers. According to a source familiar with the matter, these accounts are owned by non-Americans or a non-American.

Opinion polls suggest a tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming November 5 election. However, on Polymarket, the odds have diverged, with Trump leading at a 60% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 40%.

The source confirmed that four accounts were responsible for placing over $30 million in bets, corroborating an earlier report from the Wall Street Journal. This has led to speculation among political analysts and social media users about whether well-known Americans might be behind these bets. However, Polymarket does not permit Americans to wager on U.S. elections, and the source indicated that all users are international. The platform reportedly verifies large traders to ensure they are not using VPNs to conceal their location.

Reuters could not determine if the four accounts belong to one individual or multiple traders. Given the size and influence of these bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity with the assistance of external experts. A $30 million bet on Trump on the platform represents about 1% of the trading volume related to the presidential race.

Restrictions on U.S. election betting online are stringent. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously rejected proposals to allow such betting, citing concerns about its role. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stated in September 2023 that these contracts would essentially turn the agency into an “election cop,” a role it does not have the mandate to fulfill.

Supporters of the idea argue that election betting markets could provide valuable insights. In November 2023, betting exchange Kalshi sued the CFTC over its ban, and a federal appeals court ruled in favor of Kalshi on October 2, allowing Americans to start trading on political races just ahead of the election. Kalshi currently shows Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.

Kalshi commented, “Our stance on Trump’s surge in odds is that it’s all part of normal market activity. Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets aggregate information from a wider audience at a faster pace than polls.” The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.