A new report from Franklin Templeton Digital Assets casts doubt on the long-held belief that Bitcoin acts as “digital gold,” revealing that its market behavior has far more in common with technology stocks than with traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Minimal Correlation Between Bitcoin and Gold
The report, titled “When Gold Zigged, Bitcoin Moonwalked,” dives into three years of price data and finds a consistently weak correlation between Bitcoin and gold. Over rolling 90-day windows, the correlation rarely rose above 0.3, indicating the two assets tend to move independently rather than in sync.
“In fact, if we regress BTC returns over the last 3 years against returns of a long-gold strategy, we find that the p-value is 0.28, meaning there is no statistically significant between the two assets,” the report states.
While there have been isolated moments of co-movement, particularly during major economic disruptions, these instances have been short-lived and do not represent a broader trend.
Tech-Driven Movement More Likely
In contrast to its limited association with gold, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq Composite—a tech-heavy stock index—has been far stronger, at times peaking near 0.7. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is more aligned with tech equities, which are influenced by innovation, market sentiment, and investor risk appetite.
The report explains that gold’s long-standing institutional credibility, deep liquidity, and centuries-old market structure set it apart from Bitcoin, which remains a relatively young and volatile asset.
Institutional Adoption and Volatility Set Bitcoin Apart
Franklin Templeton highlights the stark difference in maturity and market structure between gold and Bitcoin. Gold benefits from deep institutional trust and regulatory clarity, whereas Bitcoin continues to face evolving regulation and is often driven by speculative investment.
“The disparity in maturity, combined with Bitcoin’s inherently more volatile and tech-driven nature, continues to limit its correlation with gold, making the case that the ‘digital gold’ moniker may be more aspirational than reflective of actual market behavior—at least for now,” the report notes.
Market Reactions Show Bitcoin’s Sensitivity to Macro Trends
Recent price activity further supports Franklin Templeton’s analysis. Bitcoin surged above $83,000 following lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in at 2.7% against a forecast of 3.3%. The drop in inflation metrics and a weaker US dollar helped boost sentiment among crypto traders.
Despite the favorable inflation data, traditional stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained largely unchanged, reflecting continued investor caution amid escalating US-China trade tensions.
Gold Hits Record Highs Amid Geopolitical Fears
While Bitcoin rallied on economic data, gold also experienced a sharp rise due to growing geopolitical uncertainty. As the US-China trade conflict deepens, investors have flocked to gold, pushing its price to an all-time high. Spot gold rose over 1% to $3,207 per ounce, while futures jumped to $3,236.
Gold’s year-to-date gains have now reached approximately 20%, outpacing most major asset classes. The simultaneous surge in Bitcoin and gold underscores how both assets can benefit from different market triggers—economic data for Bitcoin, and geopolitical risk for gold.