Bitcoin has a 62% chance of reaching $150,000 before the end of 2025, according to research by MyBettingEdge.
The analysis conducted by the betting analytics platform considered several factors, including historical trends and the BTC futures market, and it indicates a very bullish close to the year for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Poised for Q4 Gains
Bitcoin could see average gains of 44% by Christmas, according to analysts who believe current price weakness will not derail a strong year-end rally.
Research shared by network economist Timothy Peterson this week pointed to “positive” performance for BTC/USD in the final quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin’s Seasonal Trends
Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, with BTC/USD never closing the month more than 8% higher.
Despite this, Peterson highlighted that the broader seasonal pattern is far more encouraging.
“Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%,” he explained.
Based on those averages, Bitcoin could climb toward $160,000 by late December, supported by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Peterson, however, noted that these trends should be seen as guidelines, not certainties.
“However, I think some years do not have market/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic years,” he said.
“This skews the outcome to favoring positive yet less volatile performance.”
Traders Remain Confident Despite Weakness
Bitcoin has recently dropped to its lowest levels since early July, sparking concerns of a deeper correction.
Yet, some traders believe the current dip is simply part of Bitcoin’s recurring market cycles.
Trader Donny told followers on X that Bitcoin is “frontrunning” its typical September downturn.
“The scale is different — but the outcome is the same. Much higher,” he predicted, likening the setup to the 2017 bull market.
He also argued that BTC/USD is following a familiar pattern seen with gold, where Bitcoin lags before catching up in price action.
This perspective suggests that, despite near-term volatility, the longer-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish heading into the end of the year.