Betting analytics platform MyBettingEdge has estimated that Bitcoin has a 64% chance of hitting $125,000 before the end of September.
In its latest analysis, MyBettingEdge indicated that a rally above $125,000 would be driven be a favourable FOMC decision on Wednesday and continued corporate accumulation.
Bitcoin is struggling to break through resistance around $116,000, according to a new report from Bitfinex analysts.
The cryptocurrency has been consolidating after reaching an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14, with fading momentum pulling prices back into the $108,000–$116,000 range.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $116,370, per CoinMarketCap data.
Despite the stall, the asset is still up more than 4% over the past week.
Rate cut decision looms
Much of the attention now turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce an interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Market participants see a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Some believe that looser monetary policy could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin.
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, suggested that a rate cut could spark “a monster move in the next three months” for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Others caution against over-optimism.
Crypto analyst Ted argued that even if the Fed cuts rates, Bitcoin could first fall to $104,000 or even $92,000 before rebounding to fresh highs.
Divided sentiment
Rate cuts typically support risk assets like Bitcoin by making bonds and deposits less attractive to investors.
However, analysts warn that the effect can be muted if markets already expect the move.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflected this uncertainty on Wednesday, posting a “Neutral” score of 53.
According to Bitfinex analysts, recent price pressures stemmed largely from newer investors.
They said that sellers in early September, when Bitcoin dipped to $107,400, were mostly traders who entered within the last six months.
“This dynamic suggests that investors who accumulated during the February – May correction used the recent bounce as an opportunity to exit profitably, creating meaningful headwinds for further upside momentum,” they explained.
Fourth quarter could shift momentum
Despite short-term caution, historical data suggests a stronger outlook for the final quarter of the year.
Since 2013, Bitcoin’s average Q4 return has been more than 85%, according to CoinGlass.
Market participants are watching October 1 as a potential turning point.
For now, traders are left waiting on the Fed, with Bitcoin’s $116,000 resistance unlikely to break until momentum returns.