OPEC+ members are expected to agree on another modest increase in oil production targets for December as the group seeks to balance market share gains against growing fears of a supply glut.
Three sources familiar with the discussions said the alliance plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Since April, OPEC+ has increased its output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd — roughly 2.5% of global supply — but has slowed the pace of hikes since October.
Russia Sanctions Complicate Negotiations
Talks among the group’s top producers — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria — have been influenced by new Western sanctions on Russia, which may limit Moscow’s ability to ramp up production.
A fourth source indicated a possible pause in output hikes depending on market conditions.
Neither OPEC, Russia’s deputy prime minister’s office, nor Saudi Arabia’s media officials immediately commented on the reports.
Market Reaction and Price Outlook
Oil prices recently hit a five-month low of $60 a barrel on October 20 amid concerns of oversupply but have since rebounded to around $65.
Analysts at RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank, and SEB all anticipate a 137,000 bpd increase in December targets.
“Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners will not raise production significantly unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption,” said RBC’s Helima Croft.
Meeting Scheduled and Industry Shifts
The OPEC+ meeting is set for Sunday at 1400 GMT.
The decision comes as Russia’s second-largest oil company, Lukoil, announced plans to sell its international assets — a move analysts say underscores growing geopolitical pressure on Moscow’s energy sector.
OPEC+ leaders remain cautious as global demand growth shows signs of slowing, and next year’s forecasts point to potential oversupply if output continues to climb at its current pace.