OPEC+ has announced a second consecutive monthly increase in oil output, deciding to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. This move comes amid a backdrop of falling oil prices and concerns about weakening global demand, but the oil-producing alliance maintains that market fundamentals remain solid.
Production Hike Reflects Strategic Shifts
The decision followed a brief online meeting among OPEC+ members. The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, stated that “the fundamentals of the oil market were healthy and inventories were low.” However, oil markets reacted with concern, with Brent crude dipping over 1% on Friday to $61.29 a barrel.
This marks the latest step in unwinding a previous 2.2 million barrel per day (bpd) output cut. Eight countries had already committed to gradual increases starting in April, and by June the cumulative rise will reach 960,000 bpd—representing 44% of the initial reduction.
Political Pressure and Internal Compliance Issues
Saudi Arabia has reportedly been the driving force behind the acceleration of output hikes. Sources suggest the kingdom is aiming to pressure members like Iraq and Kazakhstan, who have repeatedly failed to comply with agreed production levels. The increase in output also follows public calls from U.S. President Donald Trump urging OPEC+ to boost supply. Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia later this month.
“Compliance again appears to be the key focus, with Kazakhstan and Iraq continuing to miss their compensation targets, alongside Russia to a lesser extent,” noted Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets.
Kazakhstan recently defied the group’s direction. Its energy minister announced the country would prioritize its national interests over OPEC+ commitments, and Kazakhstan’s April output exceeded its assigned quota, despite a 3% decrease from previous levels.
Analysts See Volatility Ahead
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo warned that prices would likely continue to slide due to the supply increase and ongoing trade tensions: “Oil prices will fall on Monday due to the OPEC+ news amid trade tensions and concerns about economic growth,” he said.
He added, “We continue to call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share.”
The Kuwaiti oil minister echoed the significance of the latest meeting, stating it would “significantly affect production policy formulation in the coming period.”
Despite the partial unwinding, OPEC+ is still curbing output by nearly 5 million bpd, with many of those cuts expected to stay in place until the end of 2026. The group plans a full ministerial meeting on May 28.