Eight key OPEC+ members are expected to keep their planned pause on oil production increases for March when they meet later on Sunday, according to several delegates familiar with the talks.
This comes as Brent Crude trades close to $70 per barrel after briefly touching $71.89 during the week, its highest level in six months amid rising geopolitical anxiety.
Fears that the United States could consider military action against Iran have injected fresh uncertainty into global energy markets that were already debating the risk of oversupply in 2026.
The producers involved in Sunday’s meeting include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, who collectively account for a significant portion of global supply.
These nations previously increased output quotas by around 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, representing roughly three percent of global oil demand.
They then agreed to freeze further production increases from January through March 2026 due to expectations of weaker seasonal consumption during the first quarter.
Sources indicated the meeting is unlikely to produce any decisions that extend beyond March, with policymakers preferring to reassess conditions closer to the second quarter.
Oil prices have been supported not only by Middle East tensions but also by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, where the energy sector has faced repeated operational challenges in recent months.
Kazakhstan confirmed this week that the massive Tengiz oilfield is being restarted gradually after previous interruptions affected national output levels.
At the same time, Washington continues to enforce strict sanctions on Tehran aimed at limiting its oil revenue, which remains a vital source of funding for the Iranian government.
Although both the United States and Iran have recently signaled willingness to engage in dialogue, Iranian officials stressed that defense capabilities remain off limits in any negotiations.
A separate meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is also scheduled for Sunday, though the group does not hold authority to change production policy.
Instead, the committee typically reviews compliance levels and market conditions before broader ministerial discussions are held at later dates.
OPEC+ as a wider alliance, which includes OPEC members alongside Russia and other allies, controls roughly half of global oil output and therefore plays a critical role in price stability.
Traders are not expecting surprises from the meeting itself but will watch closely for signals about how the group views market balance heading into the next quarter.
While some analysts continue warning about a potential supply glut next year, current price strength suggests geopolitical risks are outweighing those longer-term concerns for now.
The combination of disciplined output management and unpredictable external factors has left oil markets in a delicate equilibrium as OPEC+ navigates a complex policy environment.