Roche is defending its ambitious long-term revenue forecasts for eye drug Vabysmo after the treatment fell short of analyst expectations for another quarter.
Second-quarter sales of Vabysmo came in at approximately 1.04 billion Swiss francs ($1.27 billion), missing Wall Street consensus by 7.1% and raising fresh questions about the drug’s growth trajectory.
The result marked a 1% decline year over year, adding pressure on the Swiss pharmaceutical giant to justify its bullish long-term outlook for the treatment.
Roche Pharmaceuticals CEO Teresa Graham addressed investor concerns directly on a Thursday call, offering reassurances about the stability of the US branded market following a period of contraction.
Graham acknowledged that the rapid growth Vabysmo experienced early in its commercial life is unlikely to return, signalling a more measured outlook for the drug going forward.
“We are seeing that 2% to 3% growth in the overall retinal market,” Graham said. “We do expect that this is going to be the new normal, and we don’t expect a rebound to previous levels.”
Despite the subdued quarterly figure, Roche expects Vabysmo’s US revenue to grow by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage for the full year, with global sales projected to rise by low double-digits.
Away from Vabysmo, immunology drug Xolair emerged as the standout performer in Roche’s pharmaceutical division, with Q2 sales jumping 21% year over year to reach 965 million Swiss francs ($1.18 billion).
Xolair’s quarterly result surpassed Wall Street consensus by 10.5%, providing a meaningful boost to Roche’s overall pharma performance even as one of its flagship drugs struggled.
A potential headwind looms for Xolair, however, as Roche is currently projecting that the first US biosimilar competitor could enter the market as early as September.
Despite that competitive threat, Roche is still guiding for approximately 20% growth in Xolair sales for the full year of 2026, reflecting confidence in the drug’s near-term resilience.
In the broader immunology pipeline, Graham highlighted early-stage optimism around Gazyva, a CD20 antibody originally developed as a cancer therapy, now being explored in autoimmune conditions.
Gazyva has faced ongoing competitive pressure in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia field, with sales running flat year over year, but Graham pointed to encouraging signs from its lupus nephritis launch.
Graham cited “first early indications” of Gazyva’s launch progress in lupus nephritis, suggesting the drug could find new commercial life beyond its original oncology applications.