One week after the United States and Iran signed an interim peace deal, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of recovery.
Between June 15 and June 21, 125 transits were recorded through the strategically vital waterway, marking the highest weekly total since the war began in late February.
Tankers rushed to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day truce window expires, contributing to the surge in activity through the narrow passage.
On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 commercial vessel crossings, the highest single-day count since the war started, though still only 53% of traffic on the same day last year.
The recovery quickly came under threat when the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship, was struck on its starboard side by a projectile off the Omani coast on Thursday.
A U.S. official said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had carried out the strike, making it the first attack on a cargo vessel since the ceasefire took effect.
The IRGC had declared on Wednesday that all ships must use only its northern route and comply with Iranian routing instructions, setting up a direct conflict with the U.S. and Oman-backed southern corridor.
Shipowners are now navigating two competing authorities with no agreed rules, while the standard pre-war commercial lane remains closed due to mines.
Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO of Greek-headquartered crude oil shipping company Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp, said he does not expect Thursday’s attack to “significantly change” the trend of transits through the waterway.
“We’ve seen a large increase, especially on the crude oil passages, and I think this is set to continue and maybe this one-off event isn’t enough to really disrupt the recent events of the large exports of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude oil from the Gulf,” Alafouzos told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
Alafouzos also flagged one notable absence from the recovery, noting that Saudi exports from inside the Arabian Gulf have been almost non-existent, with shipments instead departing from Yanbu in the Red Sea.
Bruce Tan, a Singapore-based electronics manufacturer, said he had begun moving goods through the corridor again after holding back deliveries to Middle East clients for four months, but only in small batches as a precaution.
Tim Huxley, CEO of Singapore-based Mandarin Shipping, which manages 50 vessels globally and has kept all of them out of the strait, said insurance premiums remain a significant barrier to confidence.
“Insurance premiums are still very high on ships and cargoes going through the straits,” Huxley said. “Until there is a more concrete set of guidelines on safe navigation, people are going to be very reticent to go through.”
Huxley described the broader uncertainty facing shipowners, with debate continuing over which authority holds control on either side of the passage.
“A lot of ship owners are just saying: I’m going to wait and see how these talks progress before I commit to sending a ship, its cargo, and most importantly, its crew,” Huxley said.
Han Shen Lin, China country director of The Asia Group, offered a stark assessment of the financial pressures facing corporate decision-makers considering the route.
“Boardrooms aren’t asking about cargo safety — they’re asking if it is insurable. War-risk premiums have shot up from 0.05% to over 0.7% of hull value per transit. That’s not a risk premium, that’s a serious business model stress test,” Han said.
Han also warned that the consequences of a single incident extend far beyond the immediate loss of cargo, threatening client relationships, insurance renewals, and board-level confidence in the route.
The Strait of Hormuz typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic, making its continued instability a significant concern for global energy markets and supply chains.