At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have exited the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in two months.
The breakthrough comes as shipowners cautiously reposition their fleets ahead of a formal U.S.-Iran deal signing scheduled for Friday in Geneva.
Two supertankers named Diona and Hero 2, both owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and under U.S. sanctions, passed through the U.S. Navy blockade perimeter carrying a combined 3.8 million barrels of crude.
A third Iran-linked tanker carrying one million barrels of Iranian crude also exited the blockade line on Wednesday, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.
“Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony set for Friday in Geneva.
The pact is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, though its specific details have not been publicly disclosed.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington would allow Tehran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the agreement is signed, in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear programme.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before the war, has been effectively shut for the duration of the conflict, stranding hundreds of ships and disrupting global energy flows.
“The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration,” said Lloyd’s List Intelligence, reflecting deep caution across the industry.
Insurers are holding firm on high war-risk premiums, demanding “solid evidence” that the waterway will remain safe before adjusting their terms, Lloyd’s analysts said.
“While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality,” the analysts said in a client note on Tuesday.
Some very large crude carrier owners are nonetheless looking to gain a “first-mover advantage” by positioning tankers toward the Middle East Gulf, according to Lloyd’s intelligence reporting.
Dozens of VLCCs are sailing from the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean toward United Arab Emirates ports, where at least 30 ships were already at anchor, according to Windward.
The U.S. Navy has reminded the industry that “nothing has changed and will not until the agreement is signed,” said Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, an association of independent tankers.
Kpler estimated 118 laden tankers could exit the region within 15 days after the deal is formally signed, though the surge is expected to be a one-time event rather than a durable recovery.
“Most shipowners appear to be cautiously awaiting more details before planning new transits of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.
“They will seek reassurance that transits are not only permitted but also safe before sending their ships through the strait,” Rasmussen added, underscoring the fragile confidence currently gripping the tanker market.