Bitcoin’s march into fresh record territory has failed to quiet a growing chorus of traders calling for a cooldown.
Despite seven consecutive green weekly candles, several prominent analysts argue the latest leg higher resembles the final sprint of the 2021 cycle.
Roadmap revisited
Research outfit Stockmoney Lizards resurfaced a December 2023 projection that plotted a cycle peak for the fourth quarter of 2025.
“In December 2023 we posted this BTC roadmap,” the group noted, adding, “Price is a bit lower, however, timelines are fairly accurate.”
The model envisions a subsequent bear market taking the pair back to the $69,000 zone last seen in 2021.
Technical red flags
Trader Crypto Chase highlighted the widening gap between spot price and key exponential moving averages.
“Every time price deviates FAR outside the EMAs … we always see a pullback,” he said, reminding followers that mean reversion is a hallmark of every cycle.
Fellow commentator Roman also turned defensive, writing, “This doesn’t mean downside is coming immediately, it just means the bull run is likely coming to an end and I’d rather not take the risk and hold spot here.”
Roman described the market as “looking exhausted,” citing multiple bearish divergences on the weekly relative-strength index.
Institutional twist
Bulls counter that unprecedented ETF inflows and rising corporate ownership could bend, if not break, the historical template.
The current rally, they argue, is underpinned by regulated vehicles that did not exist during earlier cycles.
Even Stockmoney Lizards conceded that mass adoption “will continue,” though analysts caution that deeper liquidity can magnify both advances and corrections.
Support levels tighten
Short-term targets among bears stretch from $105,000 to $90,000, levels that coincide with previous breakout zones.
Liquidity maps show substantial bids clustered in that window, hinting at aggressive dip-buying interest.
Nevertheless, probability models derived from past cycles still give higher odds to a retracement before any sustained climb toward $150,000.
Sentiment split
The debate leaves long-term holders largely unmoved, but leverage traders report a growing premium for downside protection.
Funding rates on perpetual swaps edged lower this week, reflecting tempered enthusiasm even as spot prices hovered near $111,000.
Whether the market pauses for consolidation or lurches into a broader downtrend may hinge on macro catalysts such as U.S. Treasury yields and global risk appetite.
For now, observers agree that price discovery is alive but increasingly fragile, with every hourly candle dissected for clues.
Until a decisive move emerges, Bitcoin’s climb remains both a triumph of adoption and, perhaps, a test of collective stamina.
Market veterans remind newcomers that in cryptocurrencies, euphoria and exhaustion often travel side by side.