Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to raise tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, is backed by a narrow majority of U.S. voters, showcasing his economic edge over rival Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The Republican former president and his Democratic opponent have both committed to tax cuts should they win the Nov. 5 election. However, voters also believe Trump is more likely to reduce the $35 trillion national debt — despite independent economic forecasters arguing his proposals would do the opposite.
Some 56% of registered voters in the Sept. 11-12 poll expressed more likelihood to support a candidate who advocates for a new 10% tariff on all imports, and a 60% tariff on imports from China. In contrast, 41% were less likely to support such a candidate.
Harris currently leads Trump by 5 percentage points nationally, though the presidential race will ultimately be decided in about seven battleground states where the competition is closer.
“This is what’s keeping the election so close,” stated Karlyn Bowman, a polling expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. Bowman noted Trump’s advantage stems from perceptions that the economy thrived during his 2017-2021 term and his success in convincing voters that U.S. economic issues are due to unfair economic practices from other countries, notably China.
One in three Democrats indicated they were more likely to vote for a candidate supporting higher tariffs and significant levies on Chinese goods, as opposed to two-thirds who were less likely. Independent voters reflected the broader electorate’s sentiment.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the global economy in 2020, the U.S. economy generally performed well under the Trump administration, helped by consumer tax cuts. Unemployment reached decades-low levels, though the national debt was increasing and would surge during the pandemic.
This year, Trump has promised various tax cuts on the campaign trail, including abolishing income tax on tipped income, a measure Harris also supports. On Thursday, he also pledged to eliminate taxes on overtime pay, with seventy percent of registered voters supporting tax exemption for tips.
Trump, who dubbed himself a “tariff man” during his presidency, implemented several levies on Chinese imports. However, economists, including those at Goldman Sachs, are skeptical of such measures, suggesting that Trump’s tariffs and other policies might slow the economy.
Harris highlighted Goldman Sachs’ analysis during Tuesday’s presidential debate and noted that many independent economists believe Trump’s policies would increase the national debt. Yet, 37% of U.S. voters see Trump as more likely to focus on debt reduction, compared with 30% for Harris and another 30% who believe neither would.
While some budget forecasters estimate Trump’s tax proposals could add at least $3 trillion to federal deficits over ten years, Harris’ plans might add less than $2 trillion or even reduce the debt.
Forty-seven percent of voters think Trump would prioritize creating a favorable business climate, compared with 37% for Harris. However, Harris holds a slight 1-percentage-point advantage, 43% to 42%, when voters were asked who would foster “an economic climate that is good for me and my family.”
Voters also believe Harris is more likely to prioritize affordable healthcare and infrastructure improvements. Trump, however, has an edge on controlling inflation, with 43% of voters in the poll saying he would be more effective at “lowering prices for everyday things like groceries and gas,” compared with 36% who chose Harris.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which gathered responses online from 1,405 registered voters, has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.