Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a strong bull market despite its recent sideways price action, and a drop to $77,000 would still be within historical norms, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
Bitcoin’s Historical Cycles and Halving Impact
Bitcoin follows a well-documented four-year halving cycle, during which the block reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the rate at which new BTC enters circulation. This event historically triggers significant price increases, as lower supply meets increasing demand. Previous halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were followed by dramatic bull runs, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs months after each halving. The most recent halving took place in April 2024, and analysts widely expect similar bullish effects in the long run.
Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin surged from around $9,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021 before entering a bearish correction. By comparison, the current cycle has seen Bitcoin climb to nearly $100,000, with many predicting further upside despite recent consolidation.
A 30% Dip Would Not End the Bull Market
On February 19, Ju took to X (formerly Twitter) to address concerns over Bitcoin’s recent lack of momentum. He reaffirmed his belief that the ongoing bull cycle remains intact and suggested that even a significant pullback would not signal the start of a bear market.
“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year,” Ju stated. “We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad. I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.”
Ju also pointed to key investor cost basis levels, which provide insight into where market participants may view price as over- or undervalued. He noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors have an average cost basis of $89,000, which has served as a key support level. Similarly, new Bitcoin whales have been accumulating at this level, reinforcing its importance.
Meanwhile, Binance traders have an aggregate breakeven point at $59,000, while Bitcoin mining companies would enter unprofitability if BTC fell below $57,000. Historically, breaches of mining breakeven levels have coincided with bear market confirmations, as seen in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.
What’s Next for Bitcoin in 2025?
Despite concerns over short-term volatility, analysts at CryptoQuant expect further price increases in 2025. Contributing analyst Timo Oinonen argued that the current cycle remains incomplete, citing that BTC/USD has only gained 60% since the last halving. He anticipates a potential pullback in May, followed by a relatively stable summer, before an eventual rally in Q4.
Bitcoin has historically exhibited strong Q4 performance in multiple years, including 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. Given this trend, many expect BTC to reach new all-time highs before the next major market correction.
While short-term corrections are a normal part of Bitcoin’s cycle, the broader trajectory remains bullish, with long-term holders and institutional investors continuing to accumulate BTC. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin’s post-halving rally could still have months—or even years—of upside ahead.