President Donald Trump has called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, claiming inflation is no longer a concern. However, a stronger-than-expected April jobs report has made a rate cut less likely in the near term.
Attention Turns to June Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is scheduled for May 6–7, 2025. Most economists expect no changes to the federal funds rate, which currently sits in the 4.25%–4.5% range. With little new data expected before then, attention has already shifted to the following meeting on June 18.
Only one more jobs report will be released before the June meeting, limiting the window for significant economic deterioration that might prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy.
April Jobs Data Shows Economic Resilience
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing market forecasts. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, continuing a consistent pattern since May 2024.
Employment growth was concentrated in sectors such as healthcare, transportation, financial services, and social assistance. Meanwhile, federal government employment saw a decline.
The Fed has consistently signaled that any decision to cut rates would depend on tangible signs of a cooling labor market or rising unemployment. The April data suggest neither condition has materialized.
Market Reaction Dampens Hopes for Rate Cut
Following the release of the jobs report, market expectations for a rate cut in June dropped. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the likelihood fell from 58% to 40%. Currently, there is a 60% chance the Fed will maintain its current rate at the next meeting.
This cautious stance is reinforced by ongoing economic uncertainty, including the possible impact of recently reimposed tariffs.
Trump Pushes for Immediate Action
Despite the data, Trump continues to press the Fed for action. “There is no inflation,” he claimed, emphasizing that consumers are finally seeing relief from high prices.
He cited falling gasoline prices, declining grocery and energy costs, easing mortgage rates, and strong employment numbers as evidence the economy is stabilizing.
With inflation pressure receding, Trump argued, the Fed should seize the opportunity to cut rates and support economic growth. Whether the central bank agrees remains to be seen — but the data may not yet be on his side.