Three years on from Russian President Vladimir Putin ordering an unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there is growing concern among Ukrainians that they will be forced to accept a deal which threatens the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine without guaranteeing its future security.
This is because, following the election of Donald Trump as US President, Ukraine has seemingly lost its most crucial financial and military backer.
Worse still, the US is not only reluctant to continue to supply arms to Ukraine (without, at least, being entitled to a share of its critical minerals) but Trump has been warming up to Putin and appears to be prepared to settle the conflict on Russia’s terms.
Specifically, last week Trump blamed Kiev for “starting” the war and insisted that they could have reached a deal with Moscow.
“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat, well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Largo residence.
“You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he later added.
“I could have made a deal for Ukraine,” he continued.
“That would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land – and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished.”
Trump’s comments prompted internationally condemnation, and Russians are also concerned.
Speaking to London Insider on the condition of anonymity, a 28-year-old living in Moscow said he is worried that Trump will help Putin end the conflict on favourable terms for the Kremlin and allow him to save face, potentially emboldening him to launch more wars in the future.
“Trump might think that ending the war at any cost is worth it. Maybe he just wants to be known as the person who ended the war, but the details matter,” he said.
“If Trump allows Putin to maintain control of any part of Ukraine, he is basically legitimising his invasion and territory that Russia has stolen from Ukraine.
“Putin will definitely be happy with this result, and this would be a big greenlight for him to do it again in the future.”
Another Russian who fled the country in 2022 amid fears of conscription said, for the benefit of European security, Putin must not be allowed to leave Ukraine feeling as if he has won.
Speaking from Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, he told London Insider: “Trump and especially European politicians need to remember that this war will have implications for European security in the future.
“The worst possible outcome is for Putin to be able to declare victory and genuinely feel like his illegal war in Ukraine has led to a positive outcome for his interests.”
International Condemnation of Putin and Russia
From the outset, the international community overwhelmingly condemned Russia’s invasion. The United Nations General Assembly passed multiple resolutions denouncing Russia’s actions, with an overwhelming majority of member states voting against Moscow. The European Union, NATO, and the G7 countries have consistently criticized Russia’s aggression, labeling it as an unprovoked and illegal act.
The United States and its allies swiftly imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia, targeting its economy, financial institutions, and key industries. Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, significantly hampering their ability to conduct global transactions. Major Western companies exited the Russian market, and assets of Russian oligarchs were frozen worldwide.
Additionally, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023, citing alleged war crimes, particularly related to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. This move further isolated Russia diplomatically, making it difficult for Putin to travel to many countries without the risk of arrest.
Territorial Changes in the Last 3 Years
At the onset of the invasion, Russia launched a multipronged attack, seeking to capture Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, within days. However, strong Ukrainian resistance, coupled with logistical failures on Russia’s part, led to Moscow’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine by April 2022.
The focus then shifted to the eastern and southern regions. Russia managed to seize large portions of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, collectively known as the Donbas. By May 2022, Russian forces had captured the strategic city of Mariupol after a brutal siege. In September 2022, Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—despite not fully controlling them, a move widely condemned by the international community.
Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in late 2022, liberating significant portions of Kherson and Kharkiv regions. Throughout 2023 and 2024, the frontlines remained relatively stagnant, with heavy fighting concentrated in areas such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and the Zaporizhzhia front.
The war has turned into a battle of attrition, with both sides suffering heavy losses, increasing the appetite for a peace deal to be reached – but the terms must be right to avoid emboldening Putin.