Goldman Sachs analysts believe the FIFA World Cup could deliver a significant boost to June’s nonfarm payrolls report, due for release on Thursday.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had projected a consensus gain of 115,000 jobs for June, which would mark a notable step down from the 172,000 positions added in May.
Goldman Sachs, however, expects the total to come in at 140,000, citing what it describes as a measurable World Cup effect on hiring activity across the country.
The bank’s analysis draws on private payroll data from Homebase, a small business payroll firm, which points to at least a modest impact from the tournament on June hiring figures.
Homebase data showed that while overall hiring pace in June declined, the 11 World Cup host cities recorded a year-on-year drop of just 1.2%, compared with a much steeper fall of 3.5% in non-host cities.
Hospitality hiring in those same areas climbed 9.5% according to Homebase’s figures, a result Goldman attributes at least partly to the surge in World Cup-related activity and visitor spending.
“Our historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June, and that its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.
Even with the projected World Cup tailwind, Goldman’s forecast of 140,000 jobs would still fall short of the prior month’s growth of 172,000, though it represents a dramatic reversal from the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.
Goldman also noted that initial June payroll counts have historically shown an upward bias, with the first of three estimates being revised lower in each of the past four years.
That seasonal pattern could mean Thursday’s headline number ends up higher than even Goldman’s 140,000 forecast, adding further uncertainty to an already closely watched release.
Investors and policymakers will be scrutinising the data carefully, given ongoing debates about the strength of the labour market and the potential direction of interest rate policy in the months ahead.
The June report will serve as a key data point for the Federal Reserve as it weighs economic conditions and considers its next steps on monetary policy heading into the second half of 2026.